Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補10月初下跌裂口

Monday, November 14, 2022 Views3245

上周評論指出,恆指形成了早晨之星,並成功收復10天和20天線,9天相對強弱指數重越50中軸,走勢上出現見底訊號.恆指上周初受制於16800的阻力,之後整固了三天.完成整固後,上周五大幅上揚,收報17326,相對前周上升了1165點,升幅達7.2%,是連續第二周上升.國指和科指亦連升兩周,周升幅同樣達到7%.

A股上周表現分化,上證綜指按周上升0.6%,但深證成指按周卻下跌0.4%.經濟數據方面,10月份以美元計價的出口同比下降0.3%,遠低於市場預期的增長4.5%;進口也下跌,同比下跌0.7%,為2020年8月以來的首次下降.出口增長下降,一方面反映了外部需求疲軟,另一方面也反映了疲情導致的供應中斷.中國10月份新增信貸亦表現疲軟,人民幣新增貸款創自2017年以來最弱,顯示防疫限制和樓市下滑,令新增貸款需求受壓.另一方面,受消費需求回落及去年同期高基數效應等因素影響,10月份居民消費價格(CPI)同比漲幅有所回落,工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)更由升轉跌.

美國通脹亦有所回落,10月份消費物價指數同比上漲7.7%,低於市場預期的8%漲幅,也是自2022年1月以來最小漲幅,令市場憧憬聯儲局有望放緩加息步伐.刺激美股大幅上揚,道指,標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別上升4.2%,5.9%和8.1%.

說回港股,恆指上周五重越50天線,延續短期一浪高一浪的走勢,但升勢略嫌過急,估計或會先作出整固,在證實企穩50天線後再圖回補10月初的兩個下跌裂口,其中一個下跌裂口闊269點,介於17718和17449之間.另一個下跌裂口闊76點,介於17958和17882之間.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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