Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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形成早晨之星見底訊號

Monday, November 7, 2022 Views3239

上周評論指出,恆指近期形成的韻律是每次創出年內新低後都會作出反彈,幅度大概是800點左右,而升近10天線即遇到阻力.恆指在上周一再創年內新低,最低見到14597,不過之後的反彈力度卻超出預期,主要由於市場憧憬中國防疫政策將轉變,加上有報道指美國官員提早完成首輪中概股審計,為股市帶來新的催化劑.恆指在上周五最高回升見16513,收報16161,相對前周上升1298點,升幅達8.7%,並且結束了連續三周的跌勢.國指和科指亦大幅上揚,周升幅分別達到9%和15.6%,同時亦結束了連續三周的跌勢.

A股亦呈現先挫後揚的走勢,中國國家統計局公布10月份製造業採購經理指數為49.2,較9月份下降0.9個百分點;非製業業商務活動指數則較9月份下跌1.9個百分點至48.7.製造業和非製造業採購經理指數雙雙跌破50臨界點,落入萎縮區間,為股市帶來沽壓,上證綜指在上周一曾跌破2900,最低見到2885,可幸之後快速回升,周五收報3070,按周上升5.3%;滬深300和深證成指按周分別上升6.4%和7.6%.

美股方面,聯儲局一如預期加息四分三厘,但聯儲局主席鮑威爾在議息會議後發表的言論被視為偏鷹,加上上周公布的就業數據表現強勁,為股市帶來沽壓.其中,ADP就業報告顯示,10月份美國私營部門就業人數增加23.9萬人,高於市場預期的19.3萬人.美國勞工部公布的10月份就業數據則好壞參半,其中非農職位增加26.1萬份,遠高於市場預期的20萬份,但失業率意外升至3.7%,高於預期的3.6%.道指結束了連續四周的升勢,上周下跌1.4%;標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別下跌3.3%和5.65%.

說回港股,恆指上周形成早晨之星,並成功收復10天和20天線,9天相對強弱指數自9月初以來首次重越50中軸,走勢上出現見底訊號,只要不跌穿15400,相信仍有上升空間.不過,短期升勢過急,或會作出整固,估計回落至15600-15800區域將見到支持.
Louis:

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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