Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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待變格局

Monday, December 2, 2024 Views622

上周評論指出,恆指完成技術性反彈,料將下試19000。恆指上周曾兩度跌近19000,最低見到19054。市場憧憬中國於12月召開的一些重要會議可能加力刺激經濟政策,為股市帶來支持,19000力保不失。恆指上周五收報19423,相對前周上升了193點,升幅1%,結束了連續兩周的跌勢。國指和科指按周分別上升0.9%和2.5%,也都結束了連續兩周的跌勢。11月收官,恆指和國指同跌約4.4%;科指則跌3.2%,均連跌兩個月。

滬深股市按周和按月均上升,上證指數按周上升1.8%,按月則升1.4%;深成指按周升1.65%,按月則升0.2%。經濟數據方面,今年首十個月全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額5.87萬億元人民幣,按年降幅擴大至4.3%,首九個月下降3.5%。國家統計局表示,雖然規模以上工業企業利潤仍處於下降區間,但存量政策加快落實以及一攬子增量政策加力推出帶動下,,工業企業效益狀況有所改善。首十個月規模以上工業企業實現營業收入按年增長1.9%。10月單月計,規模以上工業企業利潤按年下降10%,較9月的27.1%降幅顯著收窄。

美股因感恩節假期,上周只有三天半交易,道指和標指上周五齊創新高。道指收報44910,按周上升1.4%,按月則上升7.5%。標指收報6032,按周和按月分別上升1.06%和5.7%。納指收報19218,按周和按月分別上升1.1%和6.3%。經濟數據方面,美國第三季GDP第二次預估值按季升2.8%,符合市場預期。10月個人消費開支(PCE)物價指數按月升0.2%,核心PCE物價升0.3%,以年率計,PCE物價升2.3%,前值為2.1%,核心PCE物價升2.8%,前值為2.7%,均符合預期。截至11月23日止當周首次申領失業救濟金人數為21.3萬人,低於預期及前值21.5萬人,反映勞動市場維持穩健。聯儲局11月議息會議記錄亦顯示,官員普遍支持對未來減息採取謹慎態度。此外,特朗普關於關稅的言論只為金融市場帶來短暫震盪。他最新警告金磚國家若試圖改變美元的主導地位,他將向這些國家徵收高達100%的關稅。

說回港股,恆指19000暫保不失,並補回了9月25日的上升裂口的一部分,但升近19700卻見到阻力,短期料將處於窄幅波動的待變格局,但淡友可能等機會再下試19000。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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