Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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橫向盤整

Monday, October 14, 2024 Views698

上周評論指出,恆指維持震盪上行態勢,往上目標分別看23000/23500。結果恆指在上周一最高見到23242,創年內新高,但周二A股假期復市當日卻暴跌超過2000點,周三進一步下跌,最低見到20191,周四回升超過600點,收報21252,但對比上周仍下跌了1485點,跌幅6.5%,結束了連續三周的升勢,全周高低波幅達3051點。國指和科指按周分別下跌6.6%和9.4%,也都結束了連續三周的升勢。

滬深股市在上周二復市後大幅高開,上證綜指和深證成指當日最高分別見到3674和11864,之後三日卻反覆下行,滬深兩市成交額連續3日縮量。上證綜指上周五一度失守3,200點,最低見到3187,收報3,217點,按周下跌3.6%。深證成指上周五一度失守10000大關,最低見到9936,收報10,060點,按周下跌4.5%。市場對國家發改委新聞發布會感到失望,人民銀行周五啟動「證券、基金、保險公司互換便利」,也未有對A股帶來太大刺激。上周六舉行的財政部新聞發布會未提及刺激政策規模,內地預告本周一將由國家市場監督管理總局、工信部、司法部及國家金融監督管理總局聯手舉行發布會,以介紹加大助企幫扶力度有關情況,讓市場繼續有所期待。

美股繼續向好,三大指數連升五周。道指禾標準普爾500指數雙雙再創歷史新高,按周分別上升1.2%和1.1%;納指按周上升1.1%,距離歷史高位僅約2%。美國聯儲局9月議息會議記錄顯示,所有官員均同意減息,但對於是否減息半厘並不一致,部分更為傾向於只減息0.25厘。經濟數據方面,美國9月消費者物價指數(CPI)按月升0.2%,高於預期的0.1%升幅;按年升2.4%,高於預期的2.3%升幅;核心CPI按月升0.3%,高於預期的0.2%升幅;按年升3.3%,亦稍高於預期。9月生產者價格指數(PPI)與8月持平,低於8月的0.2%及預期的0.1%升幅;按年則上升1.8%,高於8月的1.7%及預期的1.6%升幅。芝商所Fed Watch工具顯示,市場目前認為11月聯儲局維持利率不變的機率從上周的0上升至17.1%,認為減息四分一厘的機率則為82.9%,而認為減息半厘的機率則降至0。

說回港股,雖然財政部新聞發布會沒有提及刺激政策規模,會令市場感到失望,但市場對本周一的發布會或仍有期望。加上本周中國將公布第三季GDP數據(預測增長率介於4.5%-5.1%,估計本周恆指將在20500和22000之間橫向盤整。

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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